UEFA Champions League 2009 Picks

I haven’t thrown up a sports post in a while and with the quarterfinals in the Champions League beginning today, now is a good time to get back into it. BTW, I think exercises like trying to pick winners in sporting events are helpful to stock picking. Trying to assess strengths, weaknesses and then assigning probabilities to various outcomes is what it’s all about. I actually try to do this with everything: UFC, soccer, reality cooking shows (who’s going to get kicked off this week), etc.

Manchester United vs FC Porto –> ManU

My wife hates Wayne Rooney. I’m not fond of ManU either. But Porto don’t belong at this stage and only a favorable draw has allowed them to prolong the CL run. All the talk is about ManU avenging their 2004 CL loss to Porto but the 2009 Porto lacks Morinhuo and Deco. Shallow revenge is at hand.

Arsenal vs Villarreal –> toss-up but I’m leaning toward Villarreal

Arsenal would have to be considered the favorites in this match-up but those unfamiliar with La Liga and the Yellow Submarine from Villarreal shouldn’t underestimate them. This is a harder pick from my end. Arsenal has more firepower but Villarreal have some good players, including a handful of Spanish national team starters. Further, Arsenal don’t play the tough physical English game that tends to trouble the other European teams which is why I think this will be closer than expected. Also, key players on the Arsenal (Adebayor, Fabregas, Walcott) are just coming back from injury and may not be in top form despite the good performance over the weekend.

Barcelona vs Bayern Munich –> Barca

Barca is one of the favorites to go to the finals but Bayern won’t be a push over. The Germans sport a pretty good front line in Klose and Toni and Ribery is a good sparkplug in the midfield. Barcelona also has a problem in the back. I’m not convinced the back line is as solid as need be and Valdez looks shaky at times but they should be able to get through to the next round. These ties should be very positive and I would expect goals galore.

Liverpool vs. Chelsea  –> Liverpool

Honestly, I’m bored of these Brit ties. They play twice a year and these match-ups are tired to my eyes. I’m picking Liverpool because they always perform well in the CL, they’re in top form and Chelsea have a new coach. Chelsea look in need of some new players despite the collection of star power.

My final pick is Barcelona over Manchester United in the final but I’m biased as Barca is my favorite team.

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2 Responses to “UEFA Champions League 2009 Picks”

  1. martin Says:

    Nice try – I probably would have agreed with 3 out of 4 – the difference being Arsenal. This is because I am a fan – which reflects on attitudes to stocks too – it is all too easy to become too attached to stocks.

  2. The Enlightened American » Two For Two On the Footie Front Says:

    [...] Davy breaks down Champions League knockout stages [...]

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