Posted by Davy Bui on March 10th, 2008 in Market Commentary, Pundits
John Authers of the Financial Times penned a decent article over the weekend on the possible explanations for the commodities “bubble.” It’s worth popping over there and reading the whole thing but he sums up his three explanations of the commodities run-up as follows:
If the “consumer demand” explanation is right, then you should not [...]
Posted by Davy Bui on February 15th, 2008 in Gurus, Market Commentary, Pundits
Nice little UBS research note published on Barron’s website discussing the dollar’s resemblance to the sliding sterling in the early 20th century.
I have to agree with this article for the most part. I haven’t discussed this aspect much lately but despite my bearishness regarding the US dollar, I do not expect the armageddon type [...]
Posted by Davy Bui on January 8th, 2008 in Investment Strategies
What were your returns last year? Well, the answer is, it’s all relative. Many of the mis-categorized perma-bears (Peter Schiff, Jim Rogers, etc.) have repeatedly asserted that diversifying away from the US dollar is essential and that any nominal gains are illusory. Not surprisingly, the mainstream pundits have a very difficult time [...]
Posted by Davy Bui on December 11th, 2007 in Market Commentary
Obviously, the Fed will cut today. Whether it be 25 or 50 bp, I’m leaning toward the latter but really, I’m not that vested in today’s decision.
I’m positioned to benefit in the intermediate-term from the Fed’s obvious easing cycle. Whether that happens today or over the course of the next year isn’t important [...]
Posted by Davy Bui on November 26th, 2007 in Market Commentary, Pundits
Some of the “experts” on Wall Street remind me of another useless species, jazz critics. Some of these unproductive types spill much ink debating about whether this sounds like jazz or that doesn’t sound like jazz — it’s hard to find a more idiotic discussion. To paraphrase Miles Davis, once you can [...]
Posted by Davy Bui on November 23rd, 2007 in Market Commentary
Take a day off and come back to record low US dollar levels. The USD index sits at 74.6 as I type this, 1.4922 against the euro and the yen at 107.88 against it.
There’s a strong correlation between a rising yen and a lower stock market, probably due to the carry trade, so odds [...]